Analysis: Kasim Reed' s Incompetence, Large War Chest Means Atlanta’s Election Will Be Short, Ugly

Kasim Reed became mayor of Atlanta by the slimmest margin in memory. Today Reed sits behind the mayoral desk with a great burden.

As an entertainment attorney and political operative, Reed lacks any business familiarity and his lack of management experience has meant systemic fissures for his administration, in spite of his occasional appearance on “Meet the Press.” 

Since barely edging through the doors of the mayor’s office (Reed won his run-off election by 700 votes), he’s likely been haunted by the legacies of larger than life personalities that proceeded him (Maynard Jackson, Andy Young, and Shirley Franklin), each of whom enjoyed numerous business and civic accomplishment before being elected mayor of Atlanta.

To counter any natural opposition to his re-election, Reed’s strategy has been a fundraising machine. According to City Hall insiders, Reed’s strategy is to scare off any viable opponents with a large war chest. 

To a point, this will work. Viable candidates are unwilling to fight a war of attrition with him because Reed is too willing to jump in the gutter and has too much money. However, Reed is too vulnerable to simply walk into a second term.

That said, a short, ugly campaign against Reed is most likely. Reed is burdened with too many volatile issues and too many critical mistakes to explain away over a short campaign.

That said, I expect a late-entry candidate to take Reed on and to call on him to explain and account for his term in office.

As a reminder, Reed’s Re-Election Strategy has been laid out for the public to view. 

When most people here the phrase “the three Rs” they are reminded of the foundations of a basic skills-orientated education program within schools: Reading, Writing and Arithmetic. For Kasim Reed, however, the three Rs means “Ratings, Relationships and Reserves.”

1. Ratings = “High Poll Ratings”

2. Relationships = “National and local relationships with people who can get things done (a la Gov. Deal)

3. Reserves = “Money in the campaign coffers and in the city’s rainy day fund”

Reed spent the better part of his first term developing each of these and hyping and flaunting his progress as often as possible. But all of that won’t matter if he cannot pull himself out of the hole he’s in. 

His approval rates continue to fall (recent survey of Atlanta voters found his approval well below 50% - below 40% in precincts on Atlanta’s north side). The principal reason for his lagging poll numbers is the ongoing controversies at the airport and high crime rates.

Evidence that he is losing the “Relationship” fight is the huge disappointment he faced while in Charlotte for the Democratic National Convention. For the first time in 40 years, Atlanta’s CEO did not speak at the national convention. Kasim Reed is the first Mayor of Atlanta to be snubbed by his party since the “Jim Crow” era. 

It’s going to be a memorable election next year. Reed has raised a lot of money but it’s unclear whether that will be enough.